Differentiating correlation vs causation in SEO is something even the most experienced SEO professionals can sometimes get wrong. The impact can lead to poorly calculated strategies. If you’re struggling to understand the differences, then this is the blog for you!
What Is Correlation In SEO?
“A relation existing between phenomena or things or between mathematical or statistical variables which tend to vary, be associated, or occur together in a way not expected on the basis of chance alone.”- Merriam Webster
When it comes to analysing the effectiveness of an SEO strategy, there are many metrics to measure success. Conversion rate, keyword optimisation, rankings, domain authority, impressions… It can all be used to show that what you’re doing is working.
In terms of SEO, correlation determines the association between two metrics or variables. This is usually presented as a statistical measurement.
By looking into the correlation between two metrics or ranking factors, patterns and tendencies are revealed that could lead to improvement in SERP rankings. However, correlation isn’t always definitive. Though it may identify a pattern, it will require further investigation.
Positive Correlations In SEO
- Content Length & Search Rankings- Longer, comprehensive content usually ranks higher than shorter content. In terms of displaying expertise, longer content is valued as more in-depth and informative.
- Backlinks & Search Rankings- High-ranking sites tend to have a robust network of reputable backlinks.
- Social Media Shares & Site Visits- Content with lots of shares on social media correlates with increased site visits.
- Mobile Optimisation & Search Rankings- Sites that rank higher tend to be optimised for mobile use, due to Google’s shift to mobile-first indexing.
Negative Correlations In SEO
- Optimised Title Tags & Click-Through Rate- Title tags that are not optimised with a keyword correlate with fewer clicks and therefore affect the page’s click-through rate.
What Is Causation In SEO?
“The act or process of causing.” – Merriam Webster
Causation in the context of SEO refers to the direct effects that a specific action has on search rankings. When it comes to causation, there is less scope for interpretation or a need for deeper investigation.
There is a measurable, clear difference in a site’s visibility and user engagement when changes are made. SEO professionals can identify whether their changes to content, website architecture or backlink profiles are effective, with how the site then performs.
Pre-post analysis will provide intel as to whether an SEO change has altered a performance metric. Causation will occur if other variables remain the same and the metric you focus on changes.
When looking at causation, you only make amendments that will influence one, isolated variable. So, if that variable were loading speed, then the alterations you make to a web page should only be for that specific variable.
Causation Example: Improving Loading Speed
- Establish the current loading speed, i.e. average page load time = 7 seconds
- What is the current bounce rate for the site (%)
- What is the current amount of organic traffic (visitors per month)
- Take SEO action- compress images, browser caching, upgrade to a faster hosting plan etc.
- Make no other changes to the test web page(s)
- Track changes using Google Analytics
- Gather the (now improved) metrics that you collected at the start (points 1, 2 & 3)
- Analyse how the changes affected the results to establish causation
Correlation Vs Causation In SEO: Key Differences
If you’re still not 100% sure about correlation vs causation, allow us to outline its key differences…
Determining Relationship
- Correlation– This can be observed in data peaks and troughs. Two metrics changing in tandem highlight a potential correlation.
- Causation– A controlled test wherein one variable is specifically targeted to determine the cause and effect of action.
Analysis Approach
- Correlation– Analysis methods, such as correlation coefficients, are used to determine how closely two metrics move together.
- Causation– The approach to analysis is more controlled, pre-planned, and direct.
SEO Strategy
- Correlation– Helps identify strategies that have been implemented well, as well as areas for improvement. This could prompt the future approach to SEO strategy.
- Causation– Provides insight into direct actions to make targeted SEO improvements, which often leads to more reliable outcomes.
Misinterpretation
- Correlation– When it comes to correlation, there tends to be more than meets the eye. If you approach correlation with the same mindset as causation, you could surmise that more backlinks result in higher rankings. This negates the need for quality backlinks, which is actually more valuable.
- Causation– As causation is more direct and definitive in its approach and discoveries if done incorrectly, it can result in skewed conclusions. For example, if more changes were made to a page that could have indirectly affected the variable you were testing, it can’t be determined what was the exact causation.
Correlation Vs Causation: Which Is Better?
In terms of correlation vs causation in SEO, it is impossible to say that one is a better observation technique than the other. A good SEO strategist will use both methods to establish patterns, relationships, and direct cause-and-effect.
It is important that SEO professionals can differentiate between the two, so they can make data-driven decisions. They’ll be less susceptible to the risks of misinterpreting data and acting based on flawed conclusions.
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No matter your industry or type of business, we are experienced at tailoring our services to deliver custom content, technical onsite improvements and offsite SEO.
On your own, it is a huge undertaking. But with our help, you can be sure that your digital marketing strategy is working. Contact us today if you have any questions about correlation or causation in SEO, or if you’re interested in working with our incredible team.